The global container shipping industry is currently navigating what industry experts are calling a period of unprecedented volatility, driven largely by erratic tariff policies and shifting market dynamics. According to Patrik Berglund, CEO of Xeneta, this "absolutely nuts" market environment is likely to trigger widespread renegotiation of shipping contracts, as shippers and carriers grapple with fluctuating rates and minimum quantity commitments (MQCs).
"Disruption has been relentless over the past six years, with one challenge following another," Berglund remarked. "The current tidal wave of uncertainty could not have come at a worse time, especially as April marks the traditional season for annual contract signings between shippers and carriers." During this critical period, companies typically finalize pricing and volume commitments for the next 12 months, setting the tone for global trade logistics.
Berglund expressed concern about the impact of U.S. tariff fluctuations, which have suppressed demand while carriers continue to aggressively expand their capacity. "When markets are in turmoil, carriers often act opportunistically," he warned. As the gap between supply and demand widens, liner operators are likely to introduce surcharges to prevent rates from hitting rock bottom, a strategy that has already drawn skepticism from industry observers.
Recent announcements from major carriers highlight this trend. Maersk, for instance, announced a peak season surcharge (PSS) of $1,000 per TEU for shipments from the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the U.S. and Canada, effective May 15. Additionally, the Danish carrier will impose a $500-per-TEU surcharge on cargo from Turkey and Egypt to North America. Earlier this week, Hapag-Lloyd declared a general rate increase (GRI) of $500 per TEU for Asia-to-Latin America routes, effective April 22, while MSC introduced a PSS of $800 per TEU for shipments from Northern Europe to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas, starting May 13.
Despite these surcharges, Fabio Brocca, chief product officer at Xeneta, advised shippers to consider leveraging spot markets for potential savings, particularly on routes where volatility is highest. However, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, cautioned that the spot market in 2025 is likely to be highly unpredictable. "The tariff madness has created such uncertainty that it’s difficult to predict which direction rates will move," he said.
Looking ahead, Xeneta predicts significant renegotiation of contracts signed over the past two quarters, as shippers reassess their ability to meet MQCs amid market instability. For an industry already grappling with supply chain disruptions, the coming months promise to be a test of resilience and adaptability.
