Hong Kong, 27 Nov 2025 — Global air-cargo rates have eased for the first time in six weeks as the US Thanksgiving lull begins, yet Asian lanes continue to outperform, cushioned by booming e-commerce and supply-chain shifts out of China.
Headline numbers
Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) dipped 1.5 % week-on-week to US$2.84/kg, but remains 10 % above the 2024 low set in mid-October.
US-bound spot rates ex-Asia Pacific slipped 4 % to US$5.51/kg after a pre-holiday surge, yet are still 40 % higher than 2019 levels .
Southeast Asia–US tonnage soared 40 % YoY in October, the fastest clip on record, as American importers reroute sourcing to Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
Lane-by-lane snapshot (week 47)
| Route | Spot rate change WoW | YoY gap |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong → US | –3 % | –8 % |
| Shanghai → US | –5 % | –11 % |
| Taiwan → US | +9 % | +9 % (only origin positive YoY) |
| Ho Chi Minh → US | +8 % | –17 % |
Capacity watch
Overall global cargo tonne-kilometres are flat versus 2024, but Asia-Pacific volumes are +6 % YoY, offsetting a 2 % decline ex-China.
MD-11 freighter grounding (post-UPS crash) removed roughly 150 t of daily uplift out of Louisville, but integrators say contingency spares and charters have plugged the gap without a rate spike.
Outlook
Forwarders expect a brief Thanksgiving dip, but pricing should rebound in early December as Lunar-New-Year front-loading begins. “Rates may fade another 2-3 % this week, but Asia’s structural shift toward near-shoring keeps the floor higher than last year,” said one Shanghai-based broker.
Bottom line: the traditional US-centric peak is milder in 2025, yet Asia’s outbound momentum—fueled by semiconductors, fashion e-commerce and rerouted supply chains—means any slump is likely to be short-lived.
