Container-ship charter rates have stopped climbing, but anyone hunting for open tonnage still finds the cupboard almost bare.
1. Rates plateau, not plunge
• 6,500-TEU panamax units that fetched $72,000/day in May are now fixed at $70-71 k, according to Braemar’s weekly note .
• Average time-charter rates across all sizes are 52 % above 2023 levels and have stayed flat since October, even as spot freight rates slid .
2. Supply—still the bottleneck
• Less than 1 % of the cellular fleet above 2,000 TEU is open for the next 60 days, Braemar estimates.
• Long fixtures dominate: average charter length has doubled from eight months at the start of 2024 to 24 months today, locking in tonnage through 2026 .
3. Owners bet on 2026
• Carriers are offering 36-month deals at premiums to 2025 levels, and owners are accepting—MSC just tied up the 8,800-TEU MSC Taranto for three years at $62 k/day, 8 % above last-done for the class .
4. Newbuild wave looms
• Deliveries hit a record 2.9 m TEU in 2024, yet the order-book-to-fleet ratio is still 26 % .
• Recycling is expected to stay low at 0.3 m TEU this year, so net fleet growth could reach 7 %, matching—then outpacing—demand in 2026.
Bottom line: today’s calm is only skin-deep. Until the 2026 delivery wave arrives, open ships will remain “as rare as hen’s teeth,” and anyone needing space for peak-season 2025 will have to pay up or sign long.
