The six-week surge on Asia-North Europe container spot rates appears to have run out of steam. Drewry’s World Container Index Shanghai-Rotterdam leg fell 2 % week-on-week to US $3,384 per 40 ft on 11 July, ending the longest winning streak since the post-Lunar-New-Year rebound . Other indices tell a similarly mixed story:
• SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index): flat at US $3,996 / 40 ft
• Xeneta XSI: effectively flat at US $3,393 / 40 ft
• Freightos FBX: up 14 % to US $3,522 / 40 ft, an outlier driven by premium surcharges on a few carriers
Forwarders report that securing space is “relatively easy” except from Xiamen, while some premium-priced carriers have quietly trimmed rates to close the gap .
Why the pause matters
After a 60 % rally between mid-May and late-June, the dip suggests the market has digested the front-loaded volumes that left China ahead of the July tariff truce. The bigger worry for shippers is what comes next.
North-European port congestion is spreading again. Average dwell at Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges is already 10–14 % above May levels, and carriers are omitting calls or re-routing to Hamburg and Bremerhaven to avoid the worst bottlenecks . Xeneta’s Peter Sand warns that “severe congestion is here for the remainder of 2025,” and expects spot rates to rebound in the coming weeks .
Mediterranean trades diverge
The Shanghai-Genoa WCI component fell a further 7 % this week to US $3,491 / 40 ft, putting Mediterranean spot rates below North-Europe levels for the first time in two years . Mediterranean carriers have added 25 % more capacity (356 k TEU/month) since May, while North-Europe sailings are being trimmed 17 % (432 k → 358 k TEU/month) .
Trans-Pacific still sliding
Asia-US lanes extended their slide:
• Shanghai–Los Angeles: –8 % to US $2,931 / 40 ft
• Shanghai–New York: –5 % to US $4,839 / 40 ft
Sand predicts the East-Coast premium will collapse to within US $1,000 of West-Coast rates by late-July as carriers re-balance capacity after the tariff reprieve expires .
The brief correction gives shippers a short breather, but with Q3 congestion baked in and blank sailings already being announced, rates are likely to reverse course before August. Those with July sailings still open should lock space now; spot pricing volatility is set to return with force.
